Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution terms are clear, focusing directly on the winner of the scheduled November 2026 Taipei mayoral election.
Read the full assessment
The resolution terms are clear, focusing directly on the winner of the scheduled November 2026 Taipei mayoral election. Resolution primarily relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, but explicitly names the Taiwanese Central Election Commission as the authoritative backup source if any ambiguity arises. Interim appointments prior to the election are explicitly excluded, and a generous timeout date of June 30, 2027 provides ample buffer for any certification delays or legal challenges to conclude.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
66%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taipei as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Chiang Wan-an wins the next Taipei Mayor election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election are not considered.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Chiang Wan-an becomes the next Mayor of Taipei as a result of the election. The market resolves to No if another candidate becomes the next Mayor of Taipei as a result of the election. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known or no candidate has been elected by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed prior to the election do not count. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Taiwanese government's Central Election Commission if ambiguity arises.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the Central Election Commission of the Taiwanese government
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·