Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on the official outcome of the scheduled November 28, 2026 election for Mayor of New Taipei.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on the official outcome of the scheduled November 28, 2026 election for Mayor of New Taipei. Temporary or interim appointments made prior to the election are explicitly excluded. The primary resolution relies on consensus reporting, with an unambiguous fallback to the official Central Election Commission database if any dispute arises. A generous backstop date of June 30, 2027 provides sufficient time for election certification or legal challenges, resolving neutrally to Other if no candidate is officially elected by that point.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
35%
chance▲ +0.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of New Taipei as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Lee Shu-chuan will win the next New Taipei Mayor election scheduled for November 28, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Lee Shu-chuan becomes the next Mayor of New Taipei as a result of the November 28, 2026 election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election do not count. The market resolves No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known or no candidate has been elected by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Taiwanese government's Central Election Commission if ambiguity arises.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Central Election Commission of the Taiwanese government if ambiguous
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·