Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that resolution tracks the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of New Taipei from the scheduled November 28, 2026 local elections.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify that resolution tracks the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of New Taipei from the scheduled November 28, 2026 local elections. Interim or temporary appointments prior to the vote are explicitly excluded. The resolution source relies on a consensus of reporting with an unambiguous fallback to the official Central Election Commission database if needed. A long backstop deadline of June 30, 2027 provides sufficient buffer for election certification or legal challenges, resolving to Other if no outcome is determined by then.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
66%
chance▲ +1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of New Taipei as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Market explained
This market tracks whether Su Chiao-hui will become the next Mayor of New Taipei following the Taiwanese local elections. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed prior to the election are excluded from consideration.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Su Chiao-hui becomes the next Mayor of New Taipei as a result of the November 28, 2026 election, excluding any temporary, interim, or placeholder appointments made before the election. The market resolves No if another candidate wins the election and becomes mayor. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known or no candidate has been elected by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Taiwanese government's Central Election Commission if ambiguity arises.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with fallback to the Taiwanese government Central Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·