Will Chen Ting-fei win the next Tainan Mayor election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves clearly based on the candidate who wins the November 2026 Tainan mayoral election.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves clearly based on the candidate who wins the November 2026 Tainan mayoral election. Resolution relies primarily on credible media consensus, backed definitively by the official Central Election Commission database if any ambiguity arises. Interim appointments made prior to the election are explicitly excluded, and a generous timeout date of June 30, 2027 provides ample buffer for any certification delays or legal challenges without cutting the process short unexpectedly.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
96%
chance▼ −0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Tainan as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Chen Ting-fei will become the next Mayor of Tainan as a result of the Taiwanese local elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Chen Ting-fei becomes the next Mayor of Tainan as a result of the scheduled election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election do not count. The market resolves No if another candidate becomes the next Mayor of Tainan as a result of the election. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known or no candidate has been elected by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Taiwanese government's Central Election Commission if ambiguity exists.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Taiwanese government's Central Election Commission if ambiguous
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·