Will Chiu Yi-ying win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves clearly based on whether the named candidate becomes the next Mayor of Kaohsiung as a result of the scheduled November 2026 Taiwanese local election.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves clearly based on whether the named candidate becomes the next Mayor of Kaohsiung as a result of the scheduled November 2026 Taiwanese local election. The rules specify the official Central Election Commission as the tie-breaking authoritative source in case of any ambiguity in credible media reporting. It also includes standard exclusions for temporary or interim appointments prior to the election, and sets a generous long-stop date of June 30, 2027, to resolve to 'Other' if no winner is determined.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Kaohsiung as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Chiu Yi-ying will win the next Kaohsiung Mayoral election scheduled for November 28, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Chiu Yi-ying becomes the next Mayor of Kaohsiung as a result of the November 28, 2026 election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election are not considered. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known or no candidate has been elected by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Central Election Commission of the Taiwanese government if ambiguity exists.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Central Election Commission of Taiwan as the definitive source in case of ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·