Will Chen Pin-an win the next Miaoli County Magistrate election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves clearly based on whether Chen Pin-an is elected as the next Magistrate of Miaoli County in the scheduled November 2026 Taiwanese local elections.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves clearly based on whether Chen Pin-an is elected as the next Magistrate of Miaoli County in the scheduled November 2026 Taiwanese local elections. The rules specify that interim or temporary appointments do not qualify and provide a definitive fallback to the official Central Election Commission database if media consensus is unclear. A long resolution backstop through June 30, 2027, prevents early expiration issues while ensuring ample time for official certification.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
3%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Miaoli County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Chen Pin-an wins the next Miaoli County Magistrate election scheduled for November 28, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Chen Pin-an becomes the next Magistrate of Miaoli County as a result of the election. The market resolves to No if another candidate becomes the next Magistrate. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election do not count. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known or no candidate has been elected by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Taiwanese government (specifically the Central Election Commission) if ambiguity exists.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with Central Election Commission (Taiwanese government) official results used if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·