Will Chang Chi-kai win the next Chiayi City Mayor election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution criteria clearly specify that the outcome depends on who becomes the next Mayor of Chiayi City following the scheduled November 2026 local elections.
Read the full assessment
The resolution criteria clearly specify that the outcome depends on who becomes the next Mayor of Chiayi City following the scheduled November 2026 local elections. Interim appointments before the election are explicitly excluded. Resolution relies primarily on credible reporting with a named official fallback to the Central Election Commission database if ambiguity arises. A clear timeout date is set for June 30, 2027, which resolves the market to Other if no candidate is officially elected by that time.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
12%
chance▼ −1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Chiayi City as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Chang Chi-kai will become the next Mayor of Chiayi City as a result of the Taiwanese local elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Chang Chi-kai becomes the next Mayor of Chiayi City as a result of the election. The market resolves to No if another candidate becomes the next Mayor. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election are not considered. The market resolves to Other if the result is not known or no candidate has been elected by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Taiwanese government's Central Election Commission if ambiguity exists.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the Taiwanese government (Central Election Commission)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·