Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- Not captured
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
- Not captured
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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This market asks whether an individual is seen in public, but the rules explicitly count digital appearances such as live broadcasts, which diverges from standard public appearances. Verification relies on a consensus of credible reporting to determine whether footage is genuine, newly captured, or manipulated by AI, leaving significant subjective latitude to the resolution decider without a single authoritative official registry. Additionally, determining whether imagery was recorded within the timeframe rather than reused archival material may spark disputes if metadata is unavailable.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Mojtaba Khamenei is photographed or videotaped in public or digital appearances by October 31, 2026. Resolution requires verified authentic media taken and released within the market window.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is authentically photographed or videotaped between market creation and October 31 (ET). Digital appearances and live broadcasts count. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, and posthumous releases do not count. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met. Resolution is determined by the image or video itself and a consensus of credible reporting verifying its authenticity.
Key dates
- End date: — Latest date (ET) for qualifying photos or video to be taken and released
Resolution source
The image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.