GPT-7 released by December 31, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide detailed and objective criteria for what constitutes a qualifying release.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide detailed and objective criteria for what constitutes a qualifying release. A qualifying model must explicitly include 'GPT' and designate version 7 or higher in its name or identifier, while task-specific variants, modality-specific lines, and models bearing version designations below 7 are explicitly excluded. The public availability standard is clearly articulated, accepting open betas and rolling waitlists while explicitly disqualifying closed betas and private access tiers. Resolution relies primarily on official announcements and documentation from OpenAI, supported by credible reporting for verification, leaving minimal ambiguity regarding the outcome by the stated cutoff date.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
86%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-7 model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and be designated as version 7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. Any of OpenAI's general-purpose model families qualifies, including Astra, Sol, Terra, Luna, or a successor general-purpose family, provided the version designation of 7 or higher appears in the name or model identifier. For example, GPT-7, GPT-7 Astra, GPT-7 Sol, or a later version such as GPT-7.1 or GPT-8 would qualify, while models that retain a version designation below 7, such as GPT-6 Astra or GPT-6.1, and models that do not carry an explicit version number of 7 or higher in their name or identifier, regardless of how they are described or positioned, will not qualify. Task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, Realtime, transcription, or text-to-speech models will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether OpenAI makes a general-purpose GPT model designated as version 7 or higher publicly available by December 31, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI makes a qualifying GPT-7 or higher model available to the general public between market creation and December 31, 2027, Eastern Time. A qualifying model must include "GPT" and a version designation of 7 or higher in its name or model identifier across any general-purpose model family, including open beta or open rolling waitlist access. Models with version numbers below 7, models lacking an explicit version 7 or higher designation, task-specific or modality lines, closed betas, private access, and website labeling errors or placeholders do not count. The market resolves to No otherwise. Official information from OpenAI serves as the primary resolution source, supplemented by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·