Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- Not captured
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single designated authority or official tracking body, which leaves room for interpretation during fluid conflict situations. The rules provide specific boundaries by enumerating seven qualifying districts while explicitly excluding the Al Buraiqeh (Little Aden) district, meaning presence in parts of Greater Aden will not count toward a positive resolution. Additionally, distinct activities such as offshore naval presence, bombardment, sabotage, or diplomatic emissaries are excluded from qualifying as entry. If reporting remains unclear at the deadline, an extra three-day observation window applies before the market defaults to a negative outcome.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Houthi military forces enter specific districts of Aden, Yemen by October 31, 2026. A notable aspect is the explicit exclusion of the Al Buraiqeh district (Little Aden), diplomatic emissaries, and prisoners of war from qualifying as entry.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Houthi military forces (Ansar Allah or forces operating under its direction/behalf) deliberately operate within specified districts of Aden by October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying districts are Craiter (Sirah), At Tawahi, Al Mualla, Khur Maksar, Ash Shaikh Outhman, Dar Sad, and Al Mansura. Entry into Al Buraiqeh district alone does not qualify. Prisoners of war, diplomatic/commercial emissaries, offshore naval presence, bombardment, sabotage, temporary disruption, or unverified claims do not count. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met. In cases of ambiguity, resolution may wait up to three calendar days; if entry is not established by then, it resolves to No. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Target deadline: — Deadline for Houthi forces to enter Aden (11:59 PM ET).
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi military forces enter any part of Aden, Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Houthi military forces" refers to the military forces of the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. "Aden" refers to the following districts of Aden Governorate, Yemen: Craiter (Sirah), At Tawahi, Al Mualla, Khur Maksar, Ash Shaikh Outhman, Dar Sad, and Al Mansura. Al Buraiqeh district (Little Aden) is excluded and entry into Al Buraiqeh alone will not qualify. "Enter" means that the Houthi military forces, even temporarily, deliberately operate within any part of Aden, other than as prisoners of war or as emissaries as described below. Bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of Houthi entry will not qualify without actual entry being established. The entrance of Houthi emissaries for the purpose of negotiating an agreement or other diplomatic or commercial endeavors will not alone qualify. In the event of genuine ambiguity, this market may remain open for three days after the specified date. If Houthi entry into Aden is not established by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.