Houthis enter Aden by...?
2 live outcomes · highest priced: December 31 at 12% (+1 pts in 24h) · first close Dec 1, 2026 · $782.3K total volume
About this event
This event tracks whether Houthi military forces will enter specified districts of Aden, Yemen, by various milestone dates in 2026.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of a timeline ladder of specific deadline dates. Because earlier entry satisfies subsequent deadlines, multiple markets can resolve Yes if Houthi forces enter Aden prior to an earlier date.
How it resolves
A market resolves to Yes if Houthi military forces deliberately operate within specified districts of Aden, Yemen (Craiter, At Tawahi, Al Mualla, Khur Maksar, Ash Shaikh Outhman, Dar Sad, or Al Mansura) by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Entry into Al Buraiqeh alone, bombardment, sabotage, offshore presence, claims without actual entry, prisoners of war, and diplomatic emissaries do not qualify. In case of ambiguity, markets may stay open for three additional days; otherwise, they resolve to No based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- October 31, 2026 deadline: — Deadline at 11:59 PM ET for the October milestone.
- December 31, 2026 deadline: — Deadline at 11:59 PM ET for the December milestone.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 12% | ▲ 1 | Med | Med | |
| November 30 | 3% | ±0 | Med | High | |
| Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026? | — | — | Med | Med | Resolved |
| October 31 | — | — | Med | Med | Resolved |
| October 15 | — | — | Not rated | — |