Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market defines airspace closure strictly as a general suspension of commercial aviation across the entire Tel Aviv Flight Information Region (FIR/LLLL) via an official NOTAM or governmental order.
Read the full assessment
The market defines airspace closure strictly as a general suspension of commercial aviation across the entire Tel Aviv Flight Information Region (FIR/LLLL) via an official NOTAM or governmental order. A participant reading only the title should note the extensive list of exclusions: local airport shutdowns, ground stops, altitude or sector restrictions, air traffic control technical failures, and bans targeting specific airlines or nationalities do not trigger a positive resolution. Resolution is determined by official Israeli aviation authorities (including the Ministry of Transport, Civil Aviation Authority, and Israel Airports Authority) backed by consensus reporting, with the event time locked to when the official closure order actually takes effect.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
26%
chance▲ +1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli Airspace (The Tel Aviv Flight Information Region (FIR)/LLLL) is closed between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying closure occurs when the aviation or governmental authority responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region issues a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM), or other official order under the regulations of the jurisdiction responsible for that airspace region, which generally cancels or suspends commercial aviation across the specified airspace region, and such closure is not excluded under the exclusions provision below. A qualifying closure must apply generally to commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from the specified airspace region. A closure is not disqualified because the order permits limited exceptions, including humanitarian, medical, repatriation, or emergency flights, or select flights authorized by the responsible authority, provided that commercial flights are prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions. The following are not qualifying closures: (i) closures due to weather, including volcanic and seismic activity; (ii) closures for holidays or religious observances; (iii) closures planned or announced before Contract Issuance; (iv) closures occurring on a regular cadence whose occurrence was determined before Contract Issuance, even if not announced; (v) closures resulting from the failure or malfunction of air traffic control, navigation, communications, power, or other technical systems; (vi) restrictions applying to aircraft by nationality, state of registry, operator, or ownership rather than to commercial traffic generally; (vii) closures of a subset of the specified airspace region, including geographic sectors and altitude bands; (viii) ground stops, flow restrictions, capacity reductions, or other air traffic management measures that delay or restrict traffic without closing the specified airspace region to commercial aviation; and (ix) warnings, no-fly zones, flight suspensions, or other restrictions imposed by any party other than the aviation or governmental authorities responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region. A qualifying closure is deemed to occur at the time the closure takes effect, regardless of when the closure is announced or the order is issued. Where no effective time is included in the order, the closure is deemed to take effect at the time the order is issued. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Israeli government, including the Ministry of Transport, the Civil Aviation Authority, and the Israel Airports Authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Israeli Airspace (Tel Aviv FIR/LLLL) undergoes an official general closure to commercial aviation by December 31, 2026, subject to extensive specific exclusion criteria.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Israeli Airspace (The Tel Aviv Flight Information Region/LLLL) is closed between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying closure requires an official NOTAM or government order generally canceling or suspending commercial aviation across the region for transit, arrivals, and departures, where commercial flights are prohibited by default. It resolves to No if no such qualifying closure takes effect by the deadline. Non-qualifying events excluded from Yes resolution include weather or seismic closures, holiday observances, pre-planned or regular cadence closures, technical or air traffic control system failures, nationality-based restrictions, partial regional/altitude closures, traffic management ground stops or flow restrictions, and restrictions imposed by unauthorized third parties. Official information from the Israeli government (Ministry of Transport, Civil Aviation Authority, Israel Airports Authority) and a consensus of credible reporting will decide the outcome.
Resolution source
Official information from the Israeli government, including the Ministry of Transport, the Civil Aviation Authority, and the Israel Airports Authority, and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·