Fed rate cut by January 2027 meeting?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution criteria are clearly stated, defining the metric as a decrease in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate within an explicit timeframe between December 16, 2025, and the completion of the January 2027 FOMC meeting.
Read the full assessment
The resolution criteria are clearly stated, defining the metric as a decrease in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate within an explicit timeframe between December 16, 2025, and the completion of the January 2027 FOMC meeting. The rules explicitly include emergency rate cuts and provide a clear fallback deadline resolving to No if no meeting occurs by February 7, 2027. Resolution relies directly on official announcements from the Federal Reserve website, with reporting consensus available as a backup.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2027, currently scheduled for January 26 to 27. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between December 16, 2025, and the end of the January 2027 FOMC meeting.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025, and the completion of the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Emergency rate cuts qualify toward a Yes resolution. The market resolves to No if no rate cut occurs within this timeframe. The market also resolves to No if no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET and no qualifying rate cut has been announced. The primary resolution source is the official website of the Federal Reserve, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source
Official website of the Federal Reserve, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·