Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- Not captured
- 24 hours before
- Not captured
- 1 hour before
- Not captured
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide exceptionally clear and detailed definitions of what constitutes a qualifying general closure versus a non-qualifying partial or regional closure, including extensive historical precedent examples with links. Resolution hinges on official Iranian aviation authority notices alongside a consensus of credible reporting, which introduces standard media interpretation but is well-anchored by the specific geographic criteria (the entire Tehran FIR). Participants should note that closures solely due to natural events like weather or earthquakes do not count, nor do restrictions imposed by external foreign airlines or countries.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Iran initiates a general closure of its commercial airspace (Tehran FIR) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It excludes partial regional closures, limited flight-rule suspensions, weather or natural disaster closures, and restrictions imposed by outside nations.
How it resolves
This market resolves to Yes if Iran initiates a general closure or suspension of commercial aviation across all of Iranian airspace (Tehran FIR) between market creation and October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Closures with limited exceptions (such as pre-approved governmental flights) qualify. Closures solely due to weather, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions do not qualify. Partial regional closures, flight delays, specific flight rule suspensions (like VFR-only), and restrictions imposed by foreign countries or airlines do not qualify. Otherwise, this market resolves to No. Resolution is decided using official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — 11:59 PM ET cutoff for a qualifying airspace closure
Resolution source
Official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508), the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/), and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.