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Tech & ScienceCloses · in 17 days$299.4K volumePart of: Which company has the best AI model end of November? →

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?

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Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The rules provide an exact URL, specific view settings (Text Arena Overall with style control off and filtered for Models), and a precise snapshot timestamp of November 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.

Read the full assessment

The rules provide an exact URL, specific view settings (Text Arena Overall with style control off and filtered for Models), and a precise snapshot timestamp of November 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Clear exclusions and deterministic tie-breaking procedures are defined: AutoEval models are ignored, ties on rank fall back to granular unrounded Arena scores, and any remaining tie resolves by alphabetical order of company names. Downtime contingencies are also explicitly addressed without granting resolution discretion to deciders.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

14%

chance

▼ −5.5 pts · 24h

Yes14¢
No87¢
Anthropic · Yes · 1MO 28.5 H 31.5 L 13.0 C 13.5−15.0 (−52.6%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −12 pts24h · detected 12 Nov 2026, 19:10 UTC

The market price dropped from 29% to 17% alongside related outcomes repricing together, including a simultaneous decline in Google's market, which was the likely driver.

  • Largest hourly change: 20:00 UTC, 55% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 19 days after the move hour.
  • 1 related outcome moved in the same window, 1 in the same direction. Largest: Google (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for tech & science markets yet.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 12 Nov 2026, 19:20 UTC

Earlier

▼ −12 pts · 10 Nov 2026, 19:40 UTCThe market price dropped from 31% to 19%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the move.Price facts only. News isn't searched for tech & science markets yet.AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 19:50 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Market explained

This market measures whether Anthropic owns the highest-ranking AI model on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at the end of November 2026.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if Anthropic owns the top-ranked model on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard on November 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. The evaluation uses the Rank column with style control set to None and filtered for Models, completely excluding any models marked AutoEval. Ties are broken first by Arena score (including unrounded, granular values) and finally by alphabetical order of company names. The market resolves to No if another company owns the first-place model under these criteria. The market resolves to Other if the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable. If the source is temporarily unavailable at check time, resolution is delayed until the leaderboard comes back online.

Resolution source

arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·