Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide clear, unambiguous resolution criteria tied to a specific URL, leaderboard tab, and exact configuration settings on November 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide clear, unambiguous resolution criteria tied to a specific URL, leaderboard tab, and exact configuration settings on November 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. The resolution source is a defined public metric leaving virtually no discretion to the decider. Specific details are explicitly handled, including the exclusion of AutoEval models, layered tie-breaking procedures down to unrounded scores and alphabetical company names, and contingency rules if the site is temporarily or permanently offline.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market explained
This market measures whether Alibaba owns the top-ranked AI model on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at the end of November 2026. Resolution relies on specific leaderboard filters and excludes models marked AutoEval.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Alibaba owns the model in first place on the specified arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at the check time. Models marked "AutoEval" are excluded from consideration. Ties are broken first by unrounded Arena score, then alphabetically by company name. The market resolves to No if another company occupies first place. The market resolves to Other if the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable. Resolution is decided using the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard checked on November 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET, or at the first check after it returns online if temporarily unavailable.
Resolution source
arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·