AI bubble burst by June 30, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market defines an AI downturn using a specific checklist requiring at least three distinct trigger events to occur within a single rolling 90-day window before June 30, 2027.
Read the full assessment
The market defines an AI downturn using a specific checklist requiring at least three distinct trigger events to occur within a single rolling 90-day window before June 30, 2027. Most conditions rely on clear market metrics, such as stock price drops from all-time highs on official listing exchanges, bankruptcy filings, or a designated pricing index. The primary detail to watch is the 90-day clustering constraint and early resolution rule: individual events happening across different quarters do not count toward a Yes resolution unless three of them overlap within a 90-day span. Additionally, the illustrative example in the text references a December 31, 2026 deadline, but the operative cutoff is the question's stated date of June 30, 2027.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
24%
chance▼ −2 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe: - NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. - iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high. - OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy. - OpenAI, Inc. is acquired. - H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at: https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index. - Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe. For clarity, ‘within 90 days of this market’s specified timeframe’ means that three qualifying events must occur within a single 90-day window that ends no later than the market’s final resolution deadline. For example, with a December 31, 2026 deadline, if Event A occurs on January 10, Event B on February 5, and Event C on March 3 of 2026, this would qualify because all three fall within one 90-day span. By contrast, if Event A occurs on January 10, Event B on April 20, and Event C on November 1 of 2026, they would not qualify because they do not occur within the same 90-day window. This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims. The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether an AI industry downturn occurs by June 30, 2027. It defines a downturn strictly through a specific checklist requiring at least three distinct trigger events to take place within a single 90-day window.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if at least three specified events occur within a single 90-day window ending on or before June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying events include: NVDA closing down 50% from its all-time high; SOXX closing down 40% from its all-time high; OpenAI or Anthropic declaring bankruptcy; OpenAI being acquired; H100 rental price falling to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days on the SiliconData Silicon Index; or a major AI hardware supplier (TSM, ASML, AVGO, ANET, or SMCI) closing down 50% from its all-time high. The market may resolve Yes immediately once three conditions are met in that timeframe. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. General reporting of a downturn without meeting the three-event threshold does not trigger a Yes resolution. Resolution is determined by official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges, as well as a consensus of credible reporting, and the SiliconData Silicon Index.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·