AI bubble burst by...?

This event tracks whether an artificial intelligence industry downturn occurs by specified cutoff dates. Markets evaluate specific financial and corporate trigger events across major hardware manufacturers, semiconductor ETFs, AI startups, and compute rental prices.

How the outcomes relate

The event consists of individual deadline-based markets. Because earlier qualifying conditions would also fall before later cutoff dates, more than one market can resolve Yes.

How it resolves

A market resolves to Yes if at least three specified conditions occur within a single 90-day window ending no later than the target date at 11:59 PM ET. The six qualifying events include NVDA closing 50% below its all-time high, SOXX closing 40% below its all-time high, OpenAI or Anthropic bankruptcy, OpenAI acquisition, H100 rental rates falling to $1.00 or lower for 5 consecutive days on the SiliconData Silicon Index, or a 50% drop from all-time high for TSM, ASML, AVGO, ANET, or SMCI. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Markets may resolve immediately once conditions are met.

Key dates

• 2026 resolution deadline: Dec 31, 2026 — 11:59 PM ET
• June 2027 resolution deadline: Jun 30, 2027 — 11:59 PM ET

Resolution source

Official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges, the SiliconData Silicon Index, and a consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 6 Nov 2026, 00:29 UTC