Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules introduce several specific constraints beyond the simple title question.
Read the full assessment
The rules introduce several specific constraints beyond the simple title question. Resolution is strictly tied to the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections, requiring an explicit Knesset vote of confidence, which excludes interim or caretaker ministers. If ministerial portfolios are restructured, determining whether a new post retains primary responsibilities relies on a consensus of credible reporting, and an alphabetical tie-breaker applies if duties split across multiple roles. Official government records serve as the primary source, with consensus reporting as a secondary source.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
35%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Justice in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Justice will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Justice” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Justice are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of Justice assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether no qualifying individual assumes office as the next Israeli Minister of Justice in the first government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections by February 28, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to "No Next Minister by Feb 28" (or Yes for this specific outcome) if no qualifying individual assumes office as the Minister of Justice by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to an individual if that person first assumes office as Minister of Justice (or a qualifying successor position retaining its primary responsibilities) in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections, approved by a Knesset vote of confidence or subsequent approval vote. Interim or caretaker ministers do not count, and subsequent replacements after an initial qualifying appointment are disregarded. If multiple successor positions share primary responsibilities, resolution goes to the appointee whose full name is first alphabetically. The primary resolution source is official information from the Government of Israel, with a consensus of credible reporting also permitted.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·