Next Israeli Minister of Justice?

This event tracks who will first take office as the Israeli Minister of Justice in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. Each market corresponds to a specific candidate or the possibility that no qualifying minister assumes office by the stated deadline.

How the outcomes relate

The event contains candidate-specific markets and a fallback outcome. Because the rules state the event resolves to the first individual who assumes office as Minister of Justice in the newly formed government, at most one candidate outcome can resolve Yes, or the fallback outcome resolves Yes if no individual assumes office by the deadline.

How it resolves

A candidate market resolves to Yes if that individual first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Justice (or a qualifying successor position retaining primary portfolio responsibilities) in the first government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections, approved via a Knesset vote of confidence or approval vote. Interim or caretaker ministers do not qualify. If multiple successor positions share primary responsibilities, the individual whose full name comes first alphabetically qualifies. If no qualifying minister takes office by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'No Next Minister by Feb 28'.

Key dates

• Resolution Deadline: Feb 28, 2027 — Deadline is 11:59 PM ET; if no qualifying minister has assumed office by this time, the fallback outcome resolves Yes.

Resolution source

Official information from the Government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 17 Oct 2026, 16:33 UTC