Will the Fed Hike-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before close
- 7 days before close
- Not captured
- 24 hours before close
- Not captured
- 1 hour before close
Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify how the upper bound of the target federal funds rate across three specific scheduled FOMC meetings determines the outcome. Definitions for a hike, pause, and cut are explicitly provided with mathematical clarity based on before-and-after rate comparisons. Official Federal Reserve statements and meeting calendars serve as the designated resolution sources, leaving no room for subjective interpretation. An explicit clause also clarifies that emergency inter-meeting moves do not count.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before close.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve will implement rate hikes at the October and December FOMC meetings followed by a pause at the January meeting.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the FOMC raises the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at the October meeting, raises it again at the December meeting, and leaves it unchanged at the January meeting. The market resolves to Other if the Fed publishes any different combination of actions, including any sequence containing a rate cut. Emergency rate changes outside the scheduled FOMC meetings are disregarded. Resolution is determined using the FOMC post-meeting statements.
Key dates
- First FOMC meeting: — Meeting concludes on October 28
- Second FOMC meeting: — Meeting concludes on December 9
- Third FOMC meeting: — Meeting concludes on January 27
Resolution source
FOMC statements and the official website of the Federal Reserve
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 27 to 28; December 8 to 9; and January 26 to 27. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.