Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

This event tracks the sequence of interest rate decisions made by the Federal Open Market Committee across three consecutive scheduled meetings spanning October, December, and January, measuring the specific combination of rate pauses, hikes, or cuts.

How the outcomes relate

The markets represent mutually exclusive outcome sequences across the three designated FOMC meetings. Because only one combination of rate decisions can occur across these meetings, at most one market can resolve Yes. Any unlisted sequence or any sequence containing a rate cut resolves to an 'Other' outcome.

How it resolves

Each market resolves based on the FOMC's decisions regarding the upper bound of the target federal funds rate across three scheduled meetings. A hike is defined as a higher upper bound, a pause as an equal upper bound, and a cut as a lower upper bound compared to the level prior to each meeting. A specific market resolves Yes if the FOMC executes the exact sequence of actions named in its question across the three meetings. Emergency rate changes outside regularly scheduled meetings are not considered.

Key dates

• First FOMC meeting: October 27 to 28 (year not specified)
• Second FOMC meeting: December 8 to 9 (year not specified)
• Third FOMC meeting: January 26 to 27 (year not specified)

Resolution source

FOMC statements and the official website of the Federal Reserve

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 27 Oct 2026, 00:31 UTC