Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a broad consensus of credible reporting rather than an official legal declaration or named index, requiring the resolver to interpret whether the core structures of the Islamic Republic have experienced a definitive break in continuity.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on a broad consensus of credible reporting rather than an official legal declaration or named index, requiring the resolver to interpret whether the core structures of the Islamic Republic have experienced a definitive break in continuity. While the rules provide explicit exclusions—such as standard succession, reforms, and internal leadership shifts that maintain the institutional framework—determining whether sovereign power has truly collapsed or whether an authority has lost de facto administrative control over a majority of the population leaves room for subjective interpretation in prolonged or contested transition scenarios.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
9%
chance▼ −2 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether the current ruling regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran is overthrown, collapses, or otherwise ceases to exercise sovereign governing power by June 30, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Islamic Republic's ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or ceases to govern by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. This requires broad consensus reporting that core structures like the Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, or IRGC control under clerical authority are dissolved, incapacitated, replaced by a fundamentally different system, or have lost de facto power over a majority of Iran's population. Qualifying events include revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, as well as a clear break in continuity such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or replacement constitution. Routine elections, reforms, leadership succession, internal power shifts that preserve core structures, and partial territorial losses where the regime still administers the majority of the population do not qualify. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·