Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before June 30, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves to Yes if Friedrich Merz ceases to be Chancellor of Germany before the deadline, but it includes an important early resolution clause: a mere announcement of his resignation or removal will trigger an immediate Yes outcome, even if the effective date of departure is scheduled for well after the market's expiration.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves to Yes if Friedrich Merz ceases to be Chancellor of Germany before the deadline, but it includes an important early resolution clause: a mere announcement of his resignation or removal will trigger an immediate Yes outcome, even if the effective date of departure is scheduled for well after the market's expiration. The primary resolution source is the German government, but the rules allow a consensus of credible reporting as an alternative, introducing some evaluator judgment if reporting is fragmented or ambiguous.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
20%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Market explained
This market measures whether Friedrich Merz leaves the office of Chancellor of Germany before June 30, 2027. An early resolution trigger applies if his resignation or removal is announced before the market's end date, regardless of the effective date.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The market also immediately resolves to Yes if an announcement of his resignation or removal is made before the market end date, even if the resignation or removal takes effect later. The market resolves to No if he does not cease to be Chancellor and no such resignation or removal announcement occurs by the deadline. The government of Germany will serve as the primary resolution source, though a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Resolution source
The government of Germany, or a consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·