Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official registry or named authority, requiring subjective judgment to determine whether reporting qualifies as widespread and credible.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official registry or named authority, requiring subjective judgment to determine whether reporting qualifies as widespread and credible. Distinguishing between a genuine coup attempt by state actors, broad civil unrest or non-state revolutionary actions, and unexecuted foiled plots introduces interpretive challenges. Specifically, claims by the Iranian government about foiled plots will not qualify unless independent sources explicitly confirm an actual attempt occurred rather than mere planning or arrests, creating edge cases around what constitutes an attempted execution versus disruption before execution.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
26%
chance▲ +1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether a widely reported coup attempt occurs in Iran by December 31, 2027. It distinguishes itself by requiring state or military actors rather than non-state revolutionary forces, and strictly limits Iranian government claims of foiled plots unless independently corroborated and actively attempted.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran between market creation and December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. A coup attempt must be a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government; non-state revolutions, protests, and general unrest do not qualify. Iranian government claims of foiled plots only count if credible independent sources widely report and characterize them as a coup attempt, and foiled plots without attempted execution do not qualify. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·