Will PAN win the most seats in the 2027 Tabasco Congress election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide clear and detailed instructions for determining the winning party in the election.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide clear and detailed instructions for determining the winning party in the election. Seat attribution for coalition victories is explicitly defined according to official registration agreements, post-election floor-crossing is excluded, and clear tie-breaking mechanisms are established. Official results from the electoral authority serve as the ultimate resolution standard, backed by a generous resolution window lasting until March 31, 2028.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
2%
chance▼ −0.15 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections to elect the 35 members of the Congress of the State of Tabasco are scheduled to take place on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of the State of Tabasco as a result of this election. Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party's list in the proportional representation vote, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats will be attributed to the political party under which each elected deputy is officially registered in the final results published by the Instituto Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana de Tabasco. For district (mayoría relativa) seats won by a coalition or common candidacy, the seat will count toward the party to which the elected deputy is assigned in the official results, pursuant to the coalition agreement registered with the Instituto Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana de Tabasco, and not toward the coalition as a whole. Proportional representation seats will count toward the party to which they are allocated. Subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official results as reported by the governments of Tabasco and Mexico, including the Instituto Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana de Tabasco (https://www.iepct.org.mx/).
Market explained
This market measures whether the National Action Party (PAN) will win the most seats in the 2027 Tabasco State Congress election, applying specific tiebreaker rules based on proportional representation votes and alphabetical order if seat totals are tied.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if PAN ranks highest among all political parties in seats won in the 2027 Tabasco Congress election. Ties are broken first by the higher number of valid proportional representation list votes, and second by alphabetical order of the party names. Coalition district seats count toward the specific party assigned in official results, and proportional representation seats count toward the allocated party, disregarding later affiliation changes. The market resolves to No if another party finishes in the highest position. The market resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the governments of Tabasco and Mexico, including the Instituto Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana de Tabasco.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the governments of Tabasco and Mexico, including the Instituto Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana de Tabasco
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·