Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Tabasco Congress election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide clear and detailed criteria for determining seat attribution, including explicit instructions for breaking ties and assigning coalition seats based on official agreements.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide clear and detailed criteria for determining seat attribution, including explicit instructions for breaking ties and assigning coalition seats based on official agreements. Resolution relies on official determinations from the Instituto Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana de Tabasco, with standard reporting as an initial reference. The market also includes an objective longstop date of March 31, 2028, resolving to Other if election outcomes are not finalized in time.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
95%
chance▲ +0.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections to elect the 35 members of the Congress of the State of Tabasco are scheduled to take place on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of the State of Tabasco as a result of this election. Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party's list in the proportional representation vote, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats will be attributed to the political party under which each elected deputy is officially registered in the final results published by the Instituto Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana de Tabasco. For district (mayoría relativa) seats won by a coalition or common candidacy, the seat will count toward the party to which the elected deputy is assigned in the official results, pursuant to the coalition agreement registered with the Instituto Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana de Tabasco, and not toward the coalition as a whole. Proportional representation seats will count toward the party to which they are allocated. Subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official results as reported by the governments of Tabasco and Mexico, including the Instituto Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana de Tabasco (https://www.iepct.org.mx/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Morena will win the greatest number of seats in the 2027 Tabasco Congress election, using proportional representation votes and alphabetical order as tiebreakers.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Morena occupies the highest finishing position among political parties based on the number of seats won in the 2027 Tabasco Congress election. District seats won by coalitions count toward the specific party assigned in official results, proportional seats count toward the party allocated, and post-election affiliation changes are disregarded. Ties in seat count are broken first by proportional representation votes, then by alphabetical order. The market resolves to No if another party ranks highest under these rules. The market resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by credible reporting consensus, with ambiguous cases decided solely by official results from the governments of Tabasco and Mexico, including the Instituto Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana de Tabasco.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or officially the Instituto Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana de Tabasco and the governments of Tabasco and Mexico
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·