Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market clearly defines the winning condition as Kamala Harris winning and accepting the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination.
Read the full assessment
The market clearly defines the winning condition as Kamala Harris winning and accepting the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. The resolution relies on official Democratic Party sources to verify the nomination, which is a formal, highly publicized political event. The rules also explicitly clarify that any subsequent replacement of the nominee after the nomination is secured will not overturn a positive resolution.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
5%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Kamala Harris wins and accepts the Democratic Party's nomination for U.S. president in 2028. Notably, any subsequent replacement of the nominee prior to election day does not alter the resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Kamala Harris wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. A subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day will not change this resolution. The market resolves to No if she does not win and accept the nomination. Resolution is determined by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·