Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that the market resolves to Yes only if the named individual officially wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify that the market resolves to Yes only if the named individual officially wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. The resolution source relies on a consensus of official party sources rather than a single named endpoint, but presidential convention nominations are high-profile, formal events with straightforward outcomes. The market explicitly accounts for potential post-nomination replacements by stating that subsequent nominee changes will not alter the resolution, ensuring the outcome strictly tracks the formal nomination itself.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▼ −0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Abdul El-Sayed will win and accept the Democratic Party's nomination for U.S. president in 2028.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Abdul El-Sayed wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. The market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. Any subsequent replacement of the Democratic nominee before election day will not alter the market's resolution. Resolution is determined by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Resolution source
Consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·