Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution rules clearly specify the conditions for closing the market.
Read the full assessment
The resolution rules clearly specify the conditions for closing the market. Resolution relies on consensus among three explicit major news organisations (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) calling the race for the same party, with a clear fallback to the individual inaugurated on January 20, 2029 if the networks do not agree. There are no ambiguous definitions or unexpected edge-case clauses.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
68%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party candidate wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party candidate is elected President of the United States in the 2028 election. The market resolves to No if a candidate from another political party is elected. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same party. If all three sources have not called the race for the same party by the inauguration date, the market resolves based on which party's candidate is inaugurated.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or who is inaugurated if media sources do not agree)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·