Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clarify that qualifying military action means an offensive intended to establish control over any territory administered by Taiwan, specifically including inhabited offshore islands while excluding uninhabited ones.
Read the full assessment
The rules clarify that qualifying military action means an offensive intended to establish control over any territory administered by Taiwan, specifically including inhabited offshore islands while excluding uninhabited ones. This means actions on outlying islands count, but limited strikes, naval blockades, or gray-zone pressure lacking a clear intent to seize control may not qualify under the text. Deciding whether an action meets this standard relies on a broad list of potential sources—including official statements from China, Taiwan, the United Nations, UN Security Council members, or a consensus of credible reporting—with no explicit hierarchy, creating leeway in determining the outcome if major powers characterize an escalation differently.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance▲ +0.2 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether China will initiate a military offensive to gain control over Republic of China (Taiwan) territory before the end of 2026. Actions targeting uninhabited islands are specifically excluded from qualifying.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of territory administered by the Republic of China (Taiwan), including inhabited islands, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Uninhabited islands do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no such qualifying military offensive commences by the deadline. Resolution will be determined by official confirmation from China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·