Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves to affirmative if the president leaves office, but also triggers early on a mere announcement of resignation or removal, even if the effective date of departure is scheduled for after the deadline.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves to affirmative if the president leaves office, but also triggers early on a mere announcement of resignation or removal, even if the effective date of departure is scheduled for after the deadline. Additionally, the rules include broader conditions such as being detained, effectively removed, or permanently prevented from fulfilling duties, which require interpretation if political or health crises arise without a formal transition. While official government communications serve as the primary source, the decider may also rely on a consensus of credible reporting, leaving room for judgement in ambiguous political scenarios.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance▼ −0.4 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will leave office as President of Türkiye by December 31, 2026. A notable rule is that an announced resignation or removal triggers an immediate Yes resolution even if the departure takes effect at a later date.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period between market creation and December 31, 2026 (ET). An announcement of his resignation or removal before the end date triggers an immediate Yes resolution regardless of the effective date. Being detained, effectively removed, or permanently prevented from fulfilling presidential duties also qualifies for Yes. The market resolves to No otherwise. Official information from Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye decides resolution, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source
Official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·