Will anyone win France’s presidential election in the first round?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves based on whether a candidate wins the French presidential election outright in the first round by securing an absolute majority of valid votes.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves based on whether a candidate wins the French presidential election outright in the first round by securing an absolute majority of valid votes. While the primary resolution source allows for consensus reporting, the rules clearly establish the French Constitutional Council as the definitive official fallback if any ambiguity arises. A timeout date is set for May 31, 2027, resolving to No if results are unknown, which provides ample time after the scheduled April 2027 vote.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
5%
chance▲ +0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in France on April 18, 2027, with a second round on May 2, 2027. A second round will be held if no candidate secures a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French government, specifically the Constitutional Council (Conseil constitutionnel) (https://www.conseil-constitutionnel.fr/).
Market explained
This market measures whether any candidate wins the 2027 French presidential election outright in the first round by securing a majority of valid votes.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if any candidate wins the French presidential election outright in the first round. The market resolves to No if no candidate secures a majority of valid votes in the first round, necessitating a second round. The market also resolves to No if the result of the first round is not known by May 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the French government (specifically the Constitutional Council) if ambiguity exists.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the French Constitutional Council (Conseil constitutionnel) if ambiguous
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·