France declares state of siege (martial law) by November 15, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define what constitutes a state of siege by referencing specific provisions of the French Constitution and Defence Code.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define what constitutes a state of siege by referencing specific provisions of the French Constitution and Defence Code. They explicitly exclude related measures such as states of emergency, public health emergencies, Article 16 emergency powers, and ordinary military deployments like Opération Sentinelle. Resolution relies primarily on official legal decrees published in the Journal Officiel de la République française, providing an unambiguous and authoritative basis for verification.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▼ −0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of siege (état de siège) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of siege" (état de siège) as defined by Article 36 of the French Constitution and Articles L2121-1 to L2121-8 of the Defence Code (Code de la défense). Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of siege under Article 36 of the French Constitution will count. If the legal name of the state of siege changes but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify. A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify. A declaration of a state of emergency (état d'urgence) under Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955, a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire), the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, or the deployment or requisition of the armed forces for domestic security operations (e.g. Opération Sentinelle) without a decree declaring a state of siege will not count. Statements that a state of siege is being considered, or informal references to "martial law", will not count unless accompanied by a qualifying decree. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether France enacts a legally binding declaration of a state of siege (martial law) by November 15, 2026. Standard states of emergency or invocations of presidential emergency powers do not qualify.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a legally binding decree declaring a state of siege (état de siège) under Article 36 of the French Constitution and Articles L2121-1 to L2121-8 of the Defence Code enters into effect across any part of French territory, including overseas territories, before November 15, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Declarations of a state of emergency (état d'urgence), a public health state of emergency, invocations of Article 16 exceptional powers, military domestic deployments without a state of siege decree, and informal statements do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no qualifying decree enters into effect by the deadline. Resolution is determined primarily using the Journal Officiel de la République française, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr), or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·