France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market establishes precise legal criteria for resolution, explicitly citing Article 36 of the French Constitution and the relevant articles of the Defence Code.
Read the full assessment
This market establishes precise legal criteria for resolution, explicitly citing Article 36 of the French Constitution and the relevant articles of the Defence Code. It clearly lists several adjacent emergency measures that explicitly do not count, such as a standard state of emergency or Article 16 exceptional powers. The primary source is the official French legal gazette (Journal Officiel), minimizing ambiguity over whether a qualifying decree has taken effect. While credible reporting is mentioned as an alternative source, the strictly defined statutory mechanism leaves little room for conflicting interpretations.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance▼ −0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of siege (état de siège) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of siege" (état de siège) as defined by Article 36 of the French Constitution and Articles L2121-1 to L2121-8 of the Defence Code (Code de la défense). Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of siege under Article 36 of the French Constitution will count. If the legal name of the state of siege changes but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify. A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify. A declaration of a state of emergency (état d'urgence) under Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955, a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire), the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, or the deployment or requisition of the armed forces for domestic security operations (e.g. Opération Sentinelle) without a decree declaring a state of siege will not count. Statements that a state of siege is being considered, or informal references to "martial law", will not count unless accompanied by a qualifying decree. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether France implements a legally binding state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026. Resolution strictly distinguishes a formal state of siege under Article 36 from standard states of emergency or military deployments.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a legally binding decree declaring a state of siege (état de siège) enters into effect anywhere in France or its overseas territories by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The decree must explicitly constitute a state of siege under Article 36 of the French Constitution and the Defence Code, or retain those essential powers if renamed. General states of emergency, public health emergencies, Article 16 exceptional powers, military deployments without a siege decree, or informal statements do not count. The market resolves to No otherwise. Resolution is decided using the Journal Officiel de la République française or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr), or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·