Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 15, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide detailed and explicit criteria for what constitutes a qualifying model, including specific naming conventions, version thresholds (6.1 or higher), and explicit exclusions for other named model tiers or modality lines.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide detailed and explicit criteria for what constitutes a qualifying model, including specific naming conventions, version thresholds (6.1 or higher), and explicit exclusions for other named model tiers or modality lines. Public availability requirements are clearly defined to include open betas or open waitlists while barring private or closed access. Resolution relies primarily on official announcements from OpenAI, supplemented by a consensus of credible reporting if necessary, leaving little room for ambiguity or unexpected outcomes.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
97%
chance▲ +0.15 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI makes a GPT Astra model designated 6.1 or higher available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether OpenAI releases a GPT model named Astra with a version designation of 6.1 or higher to the general public by December 15, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI makes an Astra model designated version 6.1 or higher available to the general public between market creation and December 15, 2026 (ET). The model name or identifier must include "Astra" and be version 6.1 or higher. It must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlists. Closed betas, private access, GPT-6 Astra, tier-labeled lines, task-specific lines, placeholder text, and labeling errors do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no qualifying model is released by the deadline. Resolution is determined using official information from OpenAI, verified by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·