GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?
2 live outcomes · highest priced: December 15 at 97% · first close Dec 1, 2026 · $1.1M total volume
About this event
This event tracks whether OpenAI will release an artificial intelligence model designated as GPT Astra 6.1 or higher to the general public by specific target dates. Each market measures whether the public launch occurs on or before its stated deadline.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of multiple timeline thresholds representing different deadline dates. Because an earlier release naturally satisfies later deadlines, more than one market in this event can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
A market resolves to Yes if OpenAI makes an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or identifier available to the general public between market creation and the specified deadline (ET). Otherwise, it resolves to No. The model must be launched and publicly accessible, such as via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups; closed betas or private access do not qualify. Excluded models include GPT-6 Astra, tier-labeled models (e.g., Sol, Terra, Luna), task-specific or modality lines (e.g., Cyber, Daybreak, Codex, GPT Image, Realtime), and website placeholder or labeling errors. Official information from OpenAI serves as the primary resolution source, supported by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- October 31, 2026 deadline: — Deadline for the October 31, 2026 market
- December 31, 2026 deadline: — Deadline for the December 31, 2026 market
Resolution source
Official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 15 | 97% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| November 30 | 92% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| December 31 | 99% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| October 31 | — | — | Not rated | — | Resolved |
| October 23 | — | — | Not rated | — | Resolved |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 9, 2026? | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| October 16 | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| November 15 | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| November 6 | — | — | Not rated | — | Resolved |
| November 11 | — | — | Not rated | — | Resolved |
| November 9 | — | — | Not rated | — | Resolved |
| November 13 | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| November 5 | — | — | Not rated | — | Resolved |
| November 4 | — | — | Not rated | — | Resolved |
| November 12 | — | — | Not rated | — | Resolved |