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Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in November?

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Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The rules are clearly defined, relying on an objective price feed from Pyth for 1-minute candles on ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures.

Read the full assessment

The rules are clearly defined, relying on an objective price feed from Pyth for 1-minute candles on ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures. The definition of the Active Month contract and its rollover schedule are explicitly spelled out with exact calendar rules and official links. Backup procedures via official ICE daily reports are provided in case of Pyth feed outages. The threshold specifies that a candle's low must be equal to or below $80 during the trading sessions of the target month, leaving almost no room for source discretion or timing confusion.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

40%

chance

▼ −15.5 pts · 24h

Yes40¢
No60¢
↓ $80 · Yes · 1MO 50.5 H 70.5 L 31.5 C 40.0−10.5 (−20.8%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −11 pts24h · detected 12 Nov 2026, 19:10 UTC

The probability fell from 47% to 37% as part of a broader repricing across related WTI crude oil outcomes, with five related markets moving lower during the same period.

  • Largest hourly change: 13:00 UTC, 77% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 18 days after the move hour.
  • 5 related outcomes moved in the same window, 5 in the same direction. Largest: ↑ $90 (down), ↑ $95 (down), ↑ $100 (down).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 12 Nov 2026, 19:20 UTC

Earlier

▼ −11 pts · 12 Nov 2026, 08:40 UTCThe price dropped from 57% to 47% as part of a broader repricing across 6 related crude oil target markets, which moved together during the same period.News check pending.AI-generated · 12 Nov 2026, 08:50 UTC

Earlier

▼ −20 pts · 11 Nov 2026, 09:40 UTCThe market fell from 69% to 50% alongside a concurrent downward move in a related WTI outcome, which moved together as the likely driver.News check pending.AI-generated · 11 Nov 2026, 10:20 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of November 2026, any Pyth 1-minute candle for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures (denoted by Pyth as "CLL") has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered (See: "Trading Hours" at https://www.ice.com/products/213/WTI-Crude-Futures). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 8:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date, except for the session dated Monday, which begins at 6:00 PM ET on the preceding Sunday, and where modified by holiday or other special hours (See: https://www.ice.com/holiday-hours). The Active Month is the nearest listed contract, except during that contract's final three trading sessions. At the open of the third-to-last trading session, the next listed contract becomes the Active Month. Each contract's last trading day will be determined by ICE Futures Europe per the WTI Crude Futures contract specification (generally the 4th US business day prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract month, or five US business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a US business day). The last trading day for each contract is posted at https://www.ice.com/products/213/WTI-Crude-Futures/expiry. For example, if the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Monday the 20th, the next listed contract would become the Active Month at the start of the trading session for Thursday the 16th (8:00 PM ET on Wednesday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil Futures contract by ICE Futures Europe may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session (See: https://www.ice.com/report/10 with "T-West Texas Intermediate Light Sweet Crude Future" selected). In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures Active Month "High" and "Low" prices available at https://app.pyth.com/explore?search=CLL, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Market explained

This market measures whether ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures (Active Month) reaches a low price of $80 or below during November 2026 trading sessions according to Pyth 1-minute candle data.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if any Pyth 1-minute candle for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures (CLL) records a final High or Low price equal to or below $80 at any point after creation during a November 2026 trading session. The market resolves to No if the price does not reach $80 or below during that period, or if the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the timeframe. The Active Month transitions from the nearest listed contract to the next listed contract at the open of the third-to-last trading session. The primary deciding source is Pyth 1-minute candle data for CLL, used without rounding. If Pyth data is unavailable due to an outage, official daily high/low prices published by ICE Futures Europe may be used as a fallback.

Resolution source

Pyth (ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures Active Month, symbol CLL)

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·