Brazil presidential election annulled by December 31?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves to Yes if the Brazil Superior Electoral Court (TSE) or another competent Brazilian government body formally declares the election invalid.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves to Yes if the Brazil Superior Electoral Court (TSE) or another competent Brazilian government body formally declares the election invalid. Participants should be aware of a conditional extension mechanism: if a formal annulment case is accepted by an official body before December 31, 2026, without a final ruling, the resolution deadline extends automatically until a ruling is announced or up to June 30, 2027. Additionally, the market resolves immediately upon the first qualifying annulment ruling without waiting for subsequent appeals or legal challenges to conclude. Verification relies on official government statements backed by a consensus of credible reporting.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Medium
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance▼ −0.25 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the results of the October 25 Brazilian presidential runoff election are annulled by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The results of this election will be considered annulled if they are formally declared invalid by the Brazil Tribunal Superior Eleitoral or another official body of the government of Brazil with the legal jurisdiction to do so. If an official body of the government of Brazil with legal jurisdiction to rule on this matter has formally accepted a case seeking annulment of this election and no ruling has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) the public announcement of a ruling or (ii) June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on the first qualifying ruling issued that annuls this election. Subsequent appeals or challenges will not be considered. The resolution sources will be official information from the government of Brazil and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether the results of the October 25 Brazilian presidential runoff election are officially annulled by December 31, 2026. Resolution may be extended up to June 30, 2027, if an accepted annulment case remains pending at the primary deadline.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the results of the October 25 Brazilian presidential runoff election are formally declared invalid by the Brazil Tribunal Superior Eleitoral or another Brazilian government body with legal jurisdiction. Resolution relies on the first qualifying ruling that annuls the election, disregarding subsequent appeals or challenges. The market resolves to No if no such annulment occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. However, if a legally competent Brazilian government body has formally accepted an annulment case that remains undecided by that deadline, the market may stay open until a ruling is publicly announced or until June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever is earlier. Resolution is decided by official information from the government of Brazil and a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the government of Brazil and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·