Will Raphinha win the 2027 Ballon d'Or?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves clearly based on the official winner of the 2027 Ballon d'Or as announced by France Football and UEFA.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves clearly based on the official winner of the 2027 Ballon d'Or as announced by France Football and UEFA. It includes explicit edge-case rules, noting that shared or multiple winners will resolve to 'Other', and sets a clear long-stop deadline of March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET in the event of cancellation or extended postponement. Official organizers serve as the primary source, with consensus reporting available as a standard fallback.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
13%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the Ballon d'Or award for the 2027 Ballon d'Or. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by France Football and UEFA rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve to "Other". If the 2027 Ballon d'Or is cancelled, postponed after March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Raphinha will win the 2027 Ballon d'Or award. Resolution depends on the official winner announced by the organizing bodies or credible reporting, with a specific longstop date in early 2028.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Raphinha is officially announced as the winner of the 2027 Ballon d'Or. The market resolves to No if another player wins the award. The market resolves to Other if multiple winners are announced, or if the ceremony is cancelled, postponed past March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET, or if no winner is declared by that deadline. In the event of a tie, resolution follows the official tie-breaking rules. The outcome is decided by official information from France Football and UEFA, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
France Football and UEFA, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·