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PoliticsCloses · in 229 days$112K volumePart of: Next Israeli government formed by...? →

Next Israeli government formed by November 30, 2026?

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Gotcha risk

Medium

3 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: This market resolves based on a new Israeli government being sworn in before the Knesset by November 30, 2026.

Read the full assessment

This market resolves based on a new Israeli government being sworn in before the Knesset by November 30, 2026. A key condition is that only a government formed as a result of the 2026 election or a subsequent election qualifies. If a new coalition or government is sworn in during the current Knesset term without a new election, it would not trigger a positive resolution under these criteria, which could surprise someone looking only at the question title. Additionally, caretaker governments are explicitly excluded. Resolution relies primarily on official government or Knesset records, with consensus reporting serving as a secondary backup.

Resolver
Medium
Timing
Low
Wording
Medium
Exceptions
Medium

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

8%

chance

▼ −0.75 pts · 24h

Yes8¢
No92¢
November 30, 2026 · Yes · 1MO 9.5 H 21.1 L 2.1 C 7.8−1.8 (−18.4%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▲ +11 pts24h · detected 7 Nov 2026, 09:10 UTC

The market price rose from 9% to 20%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the move.

  • Largest hourly change: 03:00 UTC, 48% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 235 days after the move hour.
  • 2 related outcomes moved in the same window, 1 in the same direction. Largest: December 31, 2026 (up), February 28, 2027 (down).

The news search didn't complete, so no catalyst is claimed.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 7 Nov 2026, 09:20 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new Government of Israel is officially sworn in by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” To qualify, a newly formed government, headed by a Prime Minister and composed of appointed ministers must be sworn in before the Knesset within this market's timeframe. Only a government formed as a result of the 2026 Knesset election or any subsequent election will qualify. Caretaker or transitional governments, including the outgoing government continuing to serve in a caretaker capacity, will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel or the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market explained

This market measures whether a newly formed Israeli government resulting from the 2026 or a subsequent election is sworn in by November 30, 2026. Caretaker or transitional administrations are explicitly excluded.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if a newly formed Government of Israel, headed by a Prime Minister and composed of appointed ministers, is officially sworn in before the Knesset by November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Only governments formed as a result of the 2026 Knesset election or a subsequent election qualify, while caretaker or transitional governments do not count. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met by the deadline. Official information from the Government of Israel or the Knesset serves as the primary source, with a consensus of credible reporting also permitted.

Resolution source

Official information from the Government of Israel or the Knesset, or a consensus of credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·