Will the Republicans win Minnesota in the 2028 Presidential Election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify how the outcome is determined based on the candidate who wins the most valid statewide votes in Minnesota during the 2028 presidential election.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify how the outcome is determined based on the candidate who wins the most valid statewide votes in Minnesota during the 2028 presidential election. Resolution mechanics are well defined: the market resolves early if the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all concurrently project the state for the same candidate. If those three outlets do not reach a consensus or fail to make calls, official certified state government results serve as the definitive fallback. There is also a clear longstop date of December 31, 2029, resolving to Other if results remain undetermined. Wording on party nominations, replacements, and vote counting is precise and leaves minimal room for ambiguity.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
14%
chance▼ −2.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
The 2028 Presidential Election is expected to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate, or, in the case of an independent candidate, the named candidate, who wins the most valid statewide votes of any candidate in Minnesota in the 2028 Presidential Election. A candidate will be considered to represent a party if they are the nominee of that party. A candidate who is the nominee of either the Democratic or Republican Party will be considered to represent that party, regardless of any additional party affiliations they may have. This market resolves based on the candidate that wins the most statewide votes in the specified state in the 2028 US presidential election, regardless of the subsequent distribution of that state’s electoral college votes. For states using ranked-choice voting or another multi-round system, the vote count from the final round will be used. The nominees of relevant parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. If any named party nominee is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and this market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the statewide Minnesota results of the 2028 presidential election cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution sources for this market are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC; however, the certified statewide results of the 2028 presidential election may also be used. This market will resolve once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC have all concurrently called the state for the same candidate. If one or more of these news organizations does not make statewide race calls for the 2028 presidential election it will be considered to have been struck from this list. If the relevant news organizations do not reach consensus, this market will resolve based on the certified results of the election reported by the state government.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party's presidential nominee wins the most valid statewide votes in Minnesota in the 2028 Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the nominee representing the Republican Party wins the most valid statewide votes in Minnesota in the 2028 presidential election, including the final round of any multi-round system and regardless of electoral college distribution. It resolves to No if a candidate from another party or an independent candidate wins the most votes. It resolves to Other if statewide results cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC concurrently call the state for the same candidate. If they do not reach consensus or make calls, certified results from the state government determine the outcome.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or certified results from the state government
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·