Will the Democrats win Maine in the 2028 Presidential Election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market clearly defines winning as receiving the most statewide valid votes in Maine, explicitly clarifying how ranked-choice voting final rounds are handled and noting that statewide popular vote controls regardless of electoral vote allocation by congressional district.
Read the full assessment
This market clearly defines winning as receiving the most statewide valid votes in Maine, explicitly clarifying how ranked-choice voting final rounds are handled and noting that statewide popular vote controls regardless of electoral vote allocation by congressional district. Resolution occurs early if the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all project the same winner, with an unambiguous fallback to Maine's certified state election results if the outlets fail to reach a unanimous call. A longstop deadline of December 31, 2029, resolves the market to Other if results remain undetermined.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
76%
chance▲ +1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
The 2028 Presidential Election is expected to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate, or, in the case of an independent candidate, the named candidate, who wins the most valid statewide votes of any candidate in Maine in the 2028 Presidential Election. A candidate will be considered to represent a party if they are the nominee of that party. A candidate who is the nominee of either the Democratic or Republican Party will be considered to represent that party, regardless of any additional party affiliations they may have. This market resolves based on the candidate that wins the most statewide votes in the specified state in the 2028 US presidential election, regardless of the subsequent distribution of that state’s electoral college votes. For states using ranked-choice voting or another multi-round system, the vote count from the final round will be used. The nominees of relevant parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. If any named party nominee is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and this market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the statewide Maine results of the 2028 presidential election cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution sources for this market are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC; however, the certified statewide results of the 2028 presidential election may also be used. This market will resolve once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC have all concurrently called the state for the same candidate. If one or more of these news organizations does not make statewide race calls for the 2028 presidential election it will be considered to have been struck from this list. If the relevant news organizations do not reach consensus, this market will resolve based on the certified results of the election reported by the state government.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party candidate wins the most statewide votes in Maine in the 2028 Presidential Election. Notably, resolution relies on the statewide popular vote regardless of Maine's electoral vote allocation.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the nominee of the Democratic Party wins the most valid statewide votes in Maine, using the final round of votes if ranked-choice voting applies. The market resolves to No if a candidate representing another party or an independent wins the most statewide votes. The market resolves to Other if the statewide results cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, at 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution sources are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. Resolution occurs once all three have concurrently called the state for the same candidate. If consensus is not reached or an outlet does not make calls, certified results from the state government will decide the outcome.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or certified results from the state government
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·