0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify the outcome condition based on which party's nominee wins the most valid statewide votes in New Hampshire.
The rules clearly specify the outcome condition based on which party's nominee wins the most valid statewide votes in New Hampshire. Resolution is triggered early if three named news organizations (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) concurrently call the race for the same candidate. If consensus among those outlets is not reached or an outlet ceases making calls, the market explicitly falls back on the certified results from the state government. Additionally, clear clauses govern nominee replacements, multi-round or ranked-choice voting counts, and provide an explicit longstop expiration date of December 31, 2029 resolving to Other if results remain undetermined.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
24%
chance▼ −0.5 pts · 24h
The price rose from 23% to 33%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the move.
News check pending.
A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.
AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 20:20 UTC
The 2028 Presidential Election is expected to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate, or, in the case of an independent candidate, the named candidate, who wins the most valid statewide votes of any candidate in New Hampshire in the 2028 Presidential Election. A candidate will be considered to represent a party if they are the nominee of that party. A candidate who is the nominee of either the Democratic or Republican Party will be considered to represent that party, regardless of any additional party affiliations they may have. This market resolves based on the candidate that wins the most statewide votes in the specified state in the 2028 US presidential election, regardless of the subsequent distribution of that state’s electoral college votes. For states using ranked-choice voting or another multi-round system, the vote count from the final round will be used. The nominees of relevant parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. If any named party nominee is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and this market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the statewide New Hampshire results of the 2028 presidential election cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution sources for this market are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC; however, the certified statewide results of the 2028 presidential election may also be used. This market will resolve once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC have all concurrently called the state for the same candidate. If one or more of these news organizations does not make statewide race calls for the 2028 presidential election it will be considered to have been struck from this list. If the relevant news organizations do not reach consensus, this market will resolve based on the certified results of the election reported by the state government.
This market measures whether the Republican Party's nominee wins the most valid statewide votes in New Hampshire during the 2028 US presidential election.
The market resolves to Yes if the nominee of the Republican Party wins the most valid statewide votes in New Hampshire in the 2028 presidential election. The market resolves to No if a candidate representing another party or an independent candidate wins the most valid statewide votes. The market resolves to Other if the statewide results cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC have all concurrently called the state for the same candidate. If any of those news organizations does not make statewide calls, it is struck from the list. If the remaining outlets do not reach consensus, resolution is decided based on the certified statewide results reported by the state government.
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, and the certified statewide results reported by the state government
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·