Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2027 meeting?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify how the outcome is evaluated using the upper bound of the target federal funds range compared to its prior level.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify how the outcome is evaluated using the upper bound of the target federal funds range compared to its prior level. Resolution relies directly on official statements and data published on the Federal Reserve website following the conclusion of the scheduled April 2027 meeting. Clear rounding mechanics are provided for non-standard rate changes, and a definitive fallback rule applies if no statement is released before the subsequent meeting.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
62%
chance▼ −3.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled to conclude on April 28, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Open Market Committee leaves the upper bound of the target federal funds rate unchanged following its April 2027 meeting.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the FOMC leaves the upper bound of the target federal funds range unchanged following its April 2027 meeting, or if no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting. The market resolves to No if the upper bound is increased or decreased compared to the level prior to the meeting. Any non-standard change is rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points. The deciding source is the FOMC statement released following the meeting scheduled to conclude on April 28, 2027, or data published on the Federal Reserve website.
Resolution source
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement or the official website of the Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·