Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2027 meeting?
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Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market clearly defines the metric as the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate following the April 2027 FOMC meeting compared to the level immediately prior.
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This market clearly defines the metric as the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate following the April 2027 FOMC meeting compared to the level immediately prior. Resolution relies directly on official statements and data published on the Federal Reserve's website. The rules explicitly specify rounding mechanics (rounding up to the nearest 25 bps for non-standard rate adjustments) and include a clear fallback condition resolving to no change if no statement is released before the next scheduled meeting.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
25%
chance▲ +10 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled to conclude on April 28, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve will raise the upper bound of the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points following its April 2027 FOMC meeting. Rate changes not matching standard increments are rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points.
How it resolves
The market resolves based on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate compared to its level prior to the April 2027 meeting. If the rate change is not explicitly listed among displayed options, it rounds up to the nearest 25 basis points (for example, a 12.5 bps increase counts as 25 bps). If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to the "No change" bracket. The deciding source is the FOMC statement issued after the meeting scheduled to conclude on April 28, 2027, as well as the Federal Reserve's official open market webpage.
Resolution source
FOMC statement and the official website of the Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·