Up 11 points · 4 Nov 2026, 05:00 UTC
Related outcomesThe market rose from 79% to 90% as part of a broader repricing across 7 related timeline outcomes, with markets for November 6 and November 22 also moving upward.
- Largest hourly change: 05:00 UTC, 43% of the net 24-hour change.
- Closes 3 days after the move hour.
- 7 related outcomes moved in the same window, 5 in the same direction. Largest: November 6 (up), November 22 (up), November 15 (down).
The news search didn't complete, so no catalyst is claimed.
AI-generated · 4 Nov 2026, 22:20 UTC
Up 13 points · 3 Nov 2026, 01:00 UTC
Related outcomesThe market rose from 70% to 83% alongside repricing across 6 related ceasefire timeline outcomes, which moved in the opposite direction and served as the likely driver.
- Largest hourly change: 01:00 UTC, 92% of the net 24-hour change.
- Closes 4 days after the move hour.
- 6 related outcomes moved in the same window, 0 in the same direction. Largest: November 6 (down), November 22 (down), November 30 (down).
The news search didn't complete, so no catalyst is claimed.
AI-generated · 4 Nov 2026, 01:20 UTC
Down 14 points · 3 Nov 2026, 01:00 UTC
Related outcomesThe market fell from 82% to 70% as 6 related ceasefire timeline outcomes moved down together, the likely driver of the decline.
- Largest hourly change: 01:00 UTC, larger than the net 24-hour change.
- Closes 4 days after the move hour.
- 6 related outcomes moved in the same window, 6 in the same direction. Largest: November 6 (down), November 22 (down), November 30 (down).
The news search didn't complete, so no catalyst is claimed.
AI-generated · 3 Nov 2026, 06:05 UTC