PolymarketResolvedOutcome: YesClosed Part of Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? →

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?

Outcome

Yes

Polymarket resolved this market to Yes.

Final Yes price before close >99¢
Known at
$1.9M total volume

Yes price before the listed close date

7 days before
Not captured
24 hours before
1 hour before

Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.

Medium gotcha risk

Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment

Show full assessmentShow less

The rules provide detailed definitions for what constitutes a qualifying strike and list numerous specific exclusions, such as intercepted munitions, falling debris, rocket artillery, and short-range drones. However, determining whether an impact was caused by an intact strike versus intercepted debris or an excluded munition class often relies on contested battlefield reporting. Resolution is based on a consensus of official military statements and credible media reporting rather than a single definitive authority. In the event of conflicting reports, an explicit three-day waiting period applies to evaluate the totality of evidence, which introduces subjective judgment if state actors provide contradictory accounts.

Wording ambiguity
Med
Source discretion
Med
Timing risk
Low
Exceptional clauses
Med

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Price history range

Price path to close

Yes price
92¢94¢96¢98¢100¢00:0108:0015:5823:56
70¢80¢90¢100¢Nov 1Nov 3Nov 5Nov 8
70¢80¢90¢100¢Nov 2Nov 4Nov 6Nov 8

Why it moved before close

Up 11 points · 4 Nov 2026, 05:00 UTC

Related outcomes

The market rose from 79% to 90% as part of a broader repricing across 7 related timeline outcomes, with markets for November 6 and November 22 also moving upward.

  • Largest hourly change: 05:00 UTC, 43% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 3 days after the move hour.
  • 7 related outcomes moved in the same window, 5 in the same direction. Largest: November 6 (up), November 22 (up), November 15 (down).

The news search didn't complete, so no catalyst is claimed.

AI-generated · 4 Nov 2026, 22:20 UTC

Up 13 points · 3 Nov 2026, 01:00 UTC

Related outcomes

The market rose from 70% to 83% alongside repricing across 6 related ceasefire timeline outcomes, which moved in the opposite direction and served as the likely driver.

  • Largest hourly change: 01:00 UTC, 92% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 4 days after the move hour.
  • 6 related outcomes moved in the same window, 0 in the same direction. Largest: November 6 (down), November 22 (down), November 30 (down).

The news search didn't complete, so no catalyst is claimed.

AI-generated · 4 Nov 2026, 01:20 UTC

Down 14 points · 3 Nov 2026, 01:00 UTC

Related outcomes

The market fell from 82% to 70% as 6 related ceasefire timeline outcomes moved down together, the likely driver of the decline.

  • Largest hourly change: 01:00 UTC, larger than the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 4 days after the move hour.
  • 6 related outcomes moved in the same window, 6 in the same direction. Largest: November 6 (down), November 22 (down), November 30 (down).

The news search didn't complete, so no catalyst is claimed.

AI-generated · 3 Nov 2026, 06:05 UTC

Market explained before close

This market measures whether a ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains in effect through November 7, 11:59 PM IRST. It defines ceasefire breakdown strictly by direct impacts from specific qualifying strikes, disregarding intercepted munitions, debris, ground incursions, cyberattacks, and non-terrestrial strikes.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through November 7, 11:59 PM IRST. The market resolves to No if either Israel or Iran conducts a qualifying military action that directly impacts the terrestrial territory or internal waters of the other country before the deadline. Qualifying actions include direct impacts from air strikes or surface-to-surface missile strikes, including attack drones and ballistic or cruise missiles. Intercepted munitions, falling debris, surface-to-air strikes, ground incursions, artillery, small arms, cyber operations, and impacts only in airspace or maritime territory do not count. Resolution is determined by a consensus of official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting. In cases of conflicting reports, resolution may wait up to 3 calendar days after initial evidence to resolve on the totality of information.

Key dates

  • Ceasefire evaluation deadline: — Evaluated as of 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST)

Resolution source

Official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Resolution rules at close

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

About this page

A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.