Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
8 live outcomes · highest priced: November 13 at >99% · first close Nov 14, 2026 · $24.6M total volume
About this event
This event tracks whether a state of ceasefire between Israel and Iran continues without qualifying military strikes across a series of potential end dates.
How the outcomes relate
The event is structured as a series of chronological target dates. More than one market can resolve Yes if the ceasefire holds through multiple successive milestones, but an earlier qualifying strike resolving an earlier market to No would also cause subsequent date markets to resolve No.
How it resolves
A market resolves to Yes if a ceasefire remains in effect through 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST) on the listed date. It resolves to No if either Israel or Iran conducts a qualifying military action—defined as an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly impacting the other's terrestrial territory or internal waters—between market creation and the target date. Intercepted munitions, debris, ground incursions, cyber operations, and minor strikes do not qualify. Determination is based on consensus reporting from official government and military sources and credible reporting.
Key dates
- October 31 Target: Ceasefire evaluated through October 31 at 11:59 PM IRST.
- December 31 Target: Ceasefire evaluated through December 31 at 11:59 PM IRST.
Resolution source
Official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 13 | >99% | ±0 | Med | High | |
| November 15 | 96% | ▼ 1 | Med | High | |
| November 18 | 95% | ▼ 1 | Med | Med | |
| November 20 | 92% | ▼ 2 | Med | Med | |
| November 22 | 90% | ±0 | Med | High | |
| November 30 | 81% | ▼ 5 | Med | Med | |
| December 15 | 75% | ▼ 4 | Med | High | |
| December 31 | 67% | ▼ 2 | Med | High | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | — | — | Med | High | Resolved |
| October 31 | — | — | Med | High | Resolved |
| October 15 | — | — | Not rated | High | Resolved |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9? | — | — | Not rated | Med | Resolved |
| October 18 | — | — | Med | High | Resolved |
| October 21 | — | — | Med | High | Resolved |
| October 24 | — | — | Not rated | — | Resolved |
| October 27 | — | — | Med | Med | Resolved |
| November 3 | — | — | Med | Med | Resolved |
| October 29 | — | — | Not rated | — | Resolved |
| November 5 | — | — | Med | Med | Resolved |
| November 4 | — | — | Med | High | Resolved |
| November 6 | — | — | Med | High | Resolved |
| November 1 | — | — | Med | Med | Resolved |
| October 30 | — | — | Not rated | — | Resolved |
| November 7 | — | — | Med | Med | Resolved |
| November 2 | — | — | Med | High | Resolved |
| November 11 | — | — | Med | High |