Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by November 30?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The question omits the year, but the rules explicitly establish an extended timeframe running until November 30, 2026.
Read the full assessment
The question omits the year, but the rules explicitly establish an extended timeframe running until November 30, 2026. Resolution relies on credible media reporting or official statements rather than a single primary registry, requiring subjective judgment to determine whether a report is definitive or contradicted. Additionally, a strict cutoff applies: if an interaction occurs but its date and time cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within three days after the final deadline, the market resolves to No even if the event is verified later.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Medium
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
17%
chance▲ +2.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual speaks with Donald Trump between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Speaking is defined as any verbal interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be credible media reporting. However, in the absence of definitive or in the case of contradictory media reporting, statements by either of the specified individuals or their official representatives will also be considered. Statements by the specified individuals or their official representatives will only be considered conclusive if the claims explicitly, or in context unambiguously, indicate that a qualifying talk occurred within the specified timeframe and took place via verbal communication, and provided that such claims are not contradicted by the other specified individual, their representatives, or credible media reporting by the end of the third calendar date (ET) following the statement in question. This market will resolve at the earlier of i) a qualifying verbal interaction being confirmed under the above rules or ii) 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe. If the date and time of a qualifying talk cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.
Market explained
This market measures whether Donald Trump and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva have a verbal interaction by November 30, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva have any verbal interaction in person, by phone, or by video call between market creation and November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if no qualifying talk occurs within the timeframe, or if the date and time of a qualifying talk cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following the deadline. Credible media reporting serves as the primary resolution source. In the absence of definitive reports or in the case of contradictions, unambiguous and uncontradicted statements from either individual or their official representatives are also considered.
Resolution source
Credible media reporting, or statements by the specified individuals or their official representatives
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·