Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules establish a clear deadline of December 31, 2026, and require a formal, publicly acknowledged normalization agreement between Oman and Israel.
Read the full assessment
The rules establish a clear deadline of December 31, 2026, and require a formal, publicly acknowledged normalization agreement between Oman and Israel. However, resolution hinges on whether any signed agreement is clearly attributed to the framework or continuation of the Abraham Accords versus a standalone bilateral pact, which introduces interpretive ambiguity. Additionally, resolution relies on official government statements but permits a consensus of credible reporting without specifying which outlets qualify, leaving moderate latitude to the resolver in edge cases.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
4%
chance▼ −0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Oman will formally sign a normalization agreement with Israel under the Abraham Accords framework before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Oman formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A formal signing must be an official agreement between Israel and Oman that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution will be determined using official government statements, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source
Official government statements, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·